How a Fuel Jobber Learned to Buy on the Market, Not the Gauge
Use case Fuel inventory managementFuel jobber, 120 sites
How a fuel jobber learned to buy on the market, not the gauge.
Loads were ordered whenever a tank reached its reorder level, whatever the market was doing. Cortex now times every order against New York Harbor: buy ahead while prices rise, wait a day when they fall.
Ordered off the gauge. A load went out whenever a tank hit its reorder level.
Ordered on the market. Every order timed against New York Harbor and the tank.
At a glance
What changed, stage by stage.
01 · The challenge
Orders followed the gauge, not the market.
Dispatch placed a load whenever a site reached its reorder level. It was safe and simple, and it ignored the number that moves cost the most: where wholesale prices are heading tomorrow.
Rack prices follow the New York Harbor spot market, usually about a day behind. Ordering the day before a rise, or the day after a fall, was luck rather than a plan.
Before Cortex
What the team saw first
- Tank levelsEvery site above safety stock
- New York Harbor gasolineUp 4.2¢ overnight
- Order timingSet by reorder levels
- InstinctOrder when the gauge says so
The difference
Same question. Different results.
The question“Which sites should we order for today, and which can wait a day?”
Claude / GPT / Public LLMs
Uploaded file
Answer
38 sites are at or near their reorder level. Place orders for all of them today.
Just an answer.
Cortex AI
Connected intelligence
Cortex AI- New York Harbor spot
- Rack by terminal
- Rack-to-spot lag
- Sales forecast
- Tank capacity
- Weather
- Road traffic
- Local events
- Delivery windows
- Safety stock
- NY Harbor gasoline +4.2¢
- Diesel −2.8¢ overnight
- 21 tanks with 2+ days of cover
Answer
Order gasoline today for the 38 sites with room in the tank: the rack follows New York Harbor’s rise within a day. Hold the 21 diesel orders until tomorrow. Every tank stays above safety stock.
A decision.
02 · The finding
The cheapest gallon depends on the day you buy it.
Cortex compares each site’s tank level, sales forecast and tank capacity with live New York Harbor spot prices, rack prices at each terminal, and how quickly each rack has followed the spot market.
When the market is rising, it pulls orders forward for every site with room in the tank. When it is falling, it holds orders for sites with enough cover to wait a day, and it never lets a tank drop below safety stock.
What Cortex found
This morning’s order plan
Safety stock always comes first. Timing only decides the orders that can safely move a day.
Buy on the market, within the limits of the tank.
- Order ahead for sites with room in the tank when New York Harbor is rising.
- Hold orders one day for sites with enough cover when it is falling.
- Never let a tank fall below safety stock, whatever the market does.
03 · The impact
What changed.
When you buy matters as much as how much.
We ordered off the gauge for twenty years. The market was telling us when to buy the whole time.
A tank gauge tells you whether you can wait. The market tells you whether you should. Cortex reads both, every morning.
